Every landfill that accepted organic waste generates methane as the waste decomposes anaerobically underground. A typical landfill continues generating recoverable methane for 30–50 years after closure, decaying over time but at economically meaningful rates for much of that period.
The federal requirement — and the gap
The EPA's NSPS/EG rules require large landfills (above specific thresholds) to install gas collection systems and at minimum flare the gas. Flaring converts methane (highly potent greenhouse gas) to CO2 (much less potent), but it destroys the gas's energy value.
Landfills below the threshold — or older landfills that have ceased active operation — often have no gas capture. These "orphan" landfills represent a significant untapped resource.
Beyond regulated flaring, the economic opportunity is converting captured landfill gas to useful energy: electricity generation, direct thermal use, or upgrading to RNG.
The RNG uplift
Landfill gas is about 50% methane and 50% CO2, plus trace contaminants. Upgrading it to RNG (95%+ methane) unlocks the same environmental credit markets (RINs, LCFS) available to AD projects.
However, landfill gas has a lower LCFS benefit than dairy manure because the emissions were happening anyway — LCFS methodology credits dairy RNG for avoided emissions from stored manure, which creates negative carbon intensity scores. Landfill RNG doesn't get this same benefit.
Still, landfill RNG typically generates $15–30/MMBtu in combined credit values, which makes it attractive compared to $3–5/MMBtu for fossil natural gas.
Project structures
Most landfill gas projects are structured as public-private partnerships. The landfill operator (often a municipality or regional waste authority) owns the waste and the collection system. The developer provides capital and expertise for the upgrade/generation infrastructure, in exchange for an operating agreement with revenue share.
Typical terms: 15–20 year agreements, landfill receives royalty payments of 10–25% of gross revenue, developer retains the rest and handles operations.
What to look for in a site
Not all landfills are equally attractive. The key factors:
- Waste tonnage in place: Gas generation is roughly proportional to tonnage. Smaller landfills don't pencil for RNG upgrade overhead.
- Age profile: Peak gas generation is typically years 5–20 after waste placement. A landfill that closed 15 years ago is entering its highest-value period now.
- Organic fraction: Landfills that historically accepted lots of yard waste, food waste, and other organics produce more gas than landfills that mostly took C&D debris.
- Existing collection infrastructure: Landfills already flaring often have usable collection systems that can be repurposed, reducing capex significantly.
The Axis view
Landfill gas is one of the most attractive risk-adjusted returns in the renewable energy space. Technology is mature, feedstock is already present, and environmental credit markets provide strong revenue uplift. The bottleneck is site acquisition — finding under-utilized landfills with good generation potential and willing counterparty municipalities.
Looking at a Waste to Energy project?
We connect developers with financing, technology partners, and EPCs worldwide.
Start a conversation